今日时报:Chinese trade surplus shrinks今年六月份中国外贸顺差同比下降20%
金融时报：欧央行加息25基点至4.25% 达7年新高
China's trade surplus fell by 20 per cent in June over the same month last year in a sign that the weaker global economy is having a serious impact on the country's export sector.
The new trade figures, which show export growth slowing sharply, could strengthen the hand of officials in Beijing who are arguing for a slowdown in the rate of appreciation of the Chinese currency to protect exporters.
The deputy head of the Communist **'s policy research office, Zheng Xinli, was quoted in state media yesterday calling for slower renminbi rises. “We are not the Asian tigers. We need time to upgrade the structure and to handle the pressure.”
** officials maintain they are still committed to a tight monetary policy. The currency has appreciated by more than 6 per cent against the US dollar so far this year, helping to ease some of the international pressure over China's foreign exchange policy.
The trade surplus for June of $21.35bn, against $26.9bn in the same month last year, was well below forecasts, while the rate of growth in exports fell from 28.1 per cent in May to 17.6 per cent last month. Ken Peng, economist at Citigroup in Shanghai, said the trade figures were a sign that “external demand weakness was becoming more widespread”.
Although the Chinese economy continues to show robust growth, policymakers in Beijing face the same delicate balancing act as colleagues in US and Europe, trying to control a surge in inflation without causing too much damage to economic activity.
In a sign of growing official concern about the impact of higher costs on companies in the export sector, prime minister Wen Jiabao and Li Keqiang, a vice-premier, have both made publicised visits over the last week to export centres.
State media reported this week that the ** was likely to increase tax rebates for certain export industries such as textiles, only a few months after the rebates were cut.
Over the last two months, the offshore forward market for the Chinese currency has shown a much slower rate of appreciation.
According to figures leaked to Reuters, consumer price inflation continued to slow last month, falling from 7.7 per cent in May to 7.1 per cent, which could provide further encouragement to relax tightening measures. Moreover, sales and production figures to be released next week are also expected to show some slowdown in growth.
中国6月份外贸顺差比去年同期下降20%，这一迹象显示，全球经济走弱正对中国出口行业造成严重影响。
新的贸易数据显示，中国出口增长大幅减缓，这有可能让北京某些官员更有理由主张放缓人民币升值速度，以保护中国出口商。
据官方媒体昨日报道，中共中央政策研究室副主任郑新立呼吁放慢人民币升值速度。他在媒体上表示，中国不像“亚洲四小龙”，中国需要时间来完成产业结构的升级，并适应压力。
中国政府官员坚称，他们仍致力于实行从紧的货币政策。人民币兑美元汇率今年迄今已升值逾6%，在一定程度上减缓了针对中国外汇政策的国际压力。
中国6月份的贸易盈余为213.5亿美元（去年同期为269亿美元），远低于预测。出口增速则从5月份的28.1%降至6月份的17.6%。花旗集团(Citigroup)驻上海的经济学家Ken Peng表示，这些贸易数据显示，“外部需求疲弱的状况，正在产生更大范围的影响”。
虽然中国经济继续呈现强劲增长态势，但北京的政策制定者与其美欧同僚一样，面临着同样微妙的平衡难题：一方面试图控制通胀激增，另一方面又不对经济活动造成太大损害。
中国官方关注出口企业受到更高成本冲击的迹象之一是，总理温家宝和副总理李克强两人过去一周都在媒体跟随下访问了出口中心。
官方媒体本周报道称，政府很可能提高针对纺织品等某些出口产业的退税，而这些退税在几个月前刚被削减。近两个月来，人民币离岸市场远期汇率所显示的升值速度已大幅放缓。
根据路透社得到的数据，中国的消费者物价通胀上月继续放缓，从5月份的7.7%降至7.1%，这有可能进一步鼓励放宽紧缩措施。此外，下周将公布的销售量及产量数据，预期也将显示增长有所放缓。
By Geoff Dyer in Beijing
Friday, July 11, 2008
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