华尔街日报：印度深陷赤字泥沼

Deficit Is More Trouble For India


India's slowing economy is beginning to show another big crack: A growing ** deficit that could hurt much-needed investment in India's ramshackle infrastructure, boost inflation and undermine growth

速放缓的印度经济正开始经历又一重打击：不断扩大的政府赤字将危害其薄弱的基础设施所急需的投资、推高通货膨胀、威胁经济增长。



A hefty list of expenditures is at the root of India's fiscal woes, especially a once-a-decade salary increase that Standard & Poor's estimates could mean pay increases of as much as 40% for 2.9 million central ** employees. Were the ** to approve the full amount, the ratings agency figures it could cost as much as the equivalent of 2.4% of gross domestic product. State **s are likely to follow suit.

一长串支出帐单是印度财政问题的主要根源，尤其是十年一次的公务员加薪──标准普尔公司(Standard & Poor's)估计印度中央政府290万**涨幅可能高达40%。如若这一加薪幅度获批，标普预计它将相当于印度国内生产总值(GDP)的2.4%。而印度各邦政府随后也可能相应调薪。



Oil prices also are jacking up ** costs. New Delhi is issuing bonds equivalent to 3.6% of GDP to oil and fertilizer companies to partially compensate them for selling their products domestically at lower-than-global prices. While some fuel prices were increased in June, India's domestic fuel prices still significantly lag global ones.

油价也抬高了政府开支。印度政府向石油和化肥企业发行了规模相当于GDP 3.6%的债券，以此补贴它们以低于国际市场的价格在国内销售产品而遭受的损失。尽管今年6月份上调了部分燃料的价格，但印度国内的燃料价格仍大大低于国际售价。

Then there is politics. The Congress **, which leads India's fragile governing coalition, is expected to loosen the purse strings before a general election that must happen by May. It already won approval of a debt-cancellation package for many of India's impoverished farmers.

还有**因素的影响。在印度执政联盟中占据领导地位的国大党可能会在明年5月举行大选前放松对财政资金的管控。目前其帮助许多印度农民消除债务的计划已经获得了批准。



Overall, Morgan Stanley predicts, India's fiscal deficit -- including central, state and so-called 'off-budget' items -- will rise to 11.4% of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 31, up from an estimated 7.7% in the previous year.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估计，总体而言，包括中央、各邦及预算外项目在内，印度今年的财政赤字在截至明年3月31日财年的GDP中所占比例将升至11.4%，而据估算上一财年的这一比例为7.7%。



The spending increase is likely to play out in a number of ways that will harm the Indian economy, which has been growing robustly. It may give another boost to inflation, which is already running at an annual rate of more than 11%. And that could prompt the central bank to continue to raise interest rates, or take other measures to try to keep inflation in check. Along with some other negative factors, the result is that India's growth is likely to ease to between 7% and 7.5% this fiscal year, many economists estimate, down from 9.1% the previous year.

政府开支增加或许将在多个方面损害一直以来增势强劲的印度经济。它可能还会推高通货膨胀，目前印度的通货膨胀折合成年率已经超过了11%。而这将促使印度央行继续加息，或是采取**措施抑制通胀。许多经济学家估计，考虑到**一些不利因素的影响，印度本财年的经济增速可能由上财年的9.1%放缓至7%到7.5%。



The higher spending is also bound to hurt India's efforts to deal with some long-term problems, including modernizing its decrepit ports, roads, power systems, airports and telecommunications infrastructure over the next five years. Among the projects that could be delayed is an infrastructure-development program, Bharat Nirman, to improve drinking water, electricity, roads, telephones and irrigation in rural areas. Many economists say that India needs to improve its infrastructure to sustain rapid economic growth.

国家开支增加还会有损印度为解决一些长期问题而付出的努力，包括其打算五年内改善其港口、道路、电力系统、机场和电信基础设施的计划。在可能遭遇推迟的项目中，旨在发展基础设施的Bharat Nirman计划便是其中之一，它致力于改善印度农村地区的饮用水、电力、道路、电话通讯和灌溉状况。许多经济学家指出，印度必需改善基础设施才能维持经济的快速增长。



In the 1990s, India also faced a growing fiscal deficit. Then, too, a key factor was the once-every-decade rise in ** pay packages. In the subsequent drive to bring down the deficit, infrastructure spending was curtailed, which especially hurt manufacturers. It was easier for the ** to cut back on building roads, hospitals and schools than on **-employee pay or interest payments.

上世纪九十年代，印度也出现过财政赤字增加的情况。那时一大关键因素也是十年一次的公务员提薪。在接下来缩减赤字的过程中，政府减少了基础设施投入，这给制造商带来了尤其严重的影响。对政府而言，缩减公路、医院和学校方面的开支要比降低**和减息容易。



Infrastructure has been neglected for so long that the Indian ** figures it needs as much as $500 billion in spending over the next several years to equip the country properly. The ** hopes to provide much of the money, with the rest coming from private funding. But, '** finances are not in good shape, which does not augur well for increasing investment rates dramatically,' according to a Goldman Sachs report.

长期以来对基础设施建设的重视程度一直不够，印度政府估计要改善这一状况今后几年所需开支可能高达5,000亿美元。政府希望提供其中的大部分资金，其余则来自民间融资。但高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一份报告认为，政府财政状况捉襟见肘，这对大幅增加投资率来说并不是一个好兆头。

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More broadly, Indian companies could face higher interest rates at home, because ** efforts to finance its deficit could swamp the bond market, analysts warn. That could especially affect industrial enterprises looking to finance large capital projects.

分析师警告说，从更广泛的角度看，印度企业可能面临国内利率上升的局面，因为政府为赤字融资的努力也许会令债券市场陷入困境。这尤其会影响到希望为大型资本项目融资的工业企业。